Overview
Australia (13th largest economy) is the bridge between Asian demand and commodity supply, making it a key global risk barometer. Key indicators: (1) RBA cash rate โ Australia's rates affect AUD, the world's 5th most traded currency. RBA hawkish surprises strengthen AUD, which pressures ASX 200 (many exporters). (2) Iron ore price is the #1 driver of AUD and Australia's terms of trade โ BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue make up ~20% of ASX 200. Iron ore above $120/ton = bullish for AUD and ASX miners. (3) Employment data (monthly) โ Australia's labor market has been remarkably resilient. Participation rate is more important than unemployment rate due to Australia's immigration-driven population growth. (4) Quarterly CPI (released with a lag) โ Australia reports CPI quarterly, not monthly, making each release a significant event. The monthly CPI indicator (introduced recently) provides interim signals. (5) China is Australia's largest trading partner (~30% of exports) โ Chinese stimulus announcements directly move ASX mining stocks and AUD. (6) Housing market (Sydney/Melbourne prices) โ household debt is among the world's highest. Property stress โ consumer spending pullback โ RBA dovish pivot.