Overview
Non-Farm Payrolls (released first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM ET) is the single most market-moving U.S. economic indicator. Impact mechanism: Strong NFP (above consensus by 50K+) โ signals robust economy โ pushes up Treasury yields โ hawkish Fed expectations โ USD strengthens, growth stocks may sell off on higher rate fears. Weak NFP (below consensus by 50K+) โ recession fears or dovish Fed hopes โ yields drop โ rate-sensitive sectors (tech, REITs) rally. Key nuances: (1) Wage growth (Average Hourly Earnings) matters as much as job count โ hot wages = persistent inflation. (2) Unemployment rate moves slowly but a 0.5% rise from cycle low triggers the 'Sahm Rule' recession indicator. (3) Previous month revisions can shift the narrative entirely. (4) Markets react within seconds โ pre-positioning or watching the reaction in the first 15 minutes is critical. NFP also moves EUR/USD by 50-100+ pips, gold by $10-30, and S&P futures by 0.5-2% on release.