The VIX measures the S&P 500 options market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 days. It is a real-time gauge of hedging demand, uncertainty, and equity-market stress.
What to Check First
Reading the Signal
A rising VIX usually means investors are paying more for protection. The context matters: a gradual rise can show caution, while a fast spike often marks forced hedging or panic. Backwardation in VIX futures is a stronger stress signal than the spot level alone.
Market Impact
VIX spikes often coincide with risk-off moves, wider credit spreads, and forced de-risking. They can also become contrarian signals when panic is extreme and price action begins to stabilize. A falling VIX supports risk appetite, but very low volatility can encourage complacency and leverage.