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Duration

Bonds & Rates

Duration measures a bond's price sensitivity to interest rate changes, expressed in years. It is the single most important risk metric in fixed income investing. A bond with a duration of 5 years will lose approximately 5% in value if interest rates rise by 1 percentage point.

Types of Duration

- Macaulay Duration: The weighted average time until all cash flows (coupons + principal) are received. Developed by Frederick Macaulay in 1938
- Modified Duration: Macaulay Duration adjusted for the bond's yield β€” the most commonly used measure in practice
- Effective Duration: Accounts for bonds with embedded options (callable, putable, MBS). Essential for complex securities
- Key Rate Duration: Measures sensitivity to specific points on the yield curve (e.g., 2Y, 5Y, 10Y), not parallel shifts

Practical Applications

Portfolio managers use duration to control interest rate risk. 'Duration matching' β€” aligning portfolio duration with a liability duration β€” is fundamental to pension fund and insurance company management.

Why It Mattered in 2022-2023

The Fed's aggressive rate hikes devastated long-duration assets. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index lost 13% in 2022 β€” its worst year since inception in 1976. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed in March 2023 partly because it held long-duration bonds (MBS with duration of 6+ years) that lost massive value as rates surged.

Key Rule of Thumb

Higher coupon = lower duration (you receive cash flows sooner). Zero-coupon bonds have duration equal to their maturity. Longer maturity = higher duration = more rate sensitivity.

Duration | ECONPLEX